Deciding on Football Keepers

cubfanindy · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:56 pm Post subject: Deciding on Football Keepers

Excerpts from a conversation with a friend regarding who to keep in our fantasy league. We start one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one defense, and a kicker. We are now at 16 teams, and we are allowed three keepers.

>I like your picks. I assumed you were keeping Palmer, but I think
>that is a
>good move. Steve Smith is too good to give up, and obviously, RBs
>(especially two full starters) cannot be parted with. And at least
>in your
>position, you know you have three top tier starters.
>
>My choices were frigging annoying. Beyond LT, I had no clue,
>really.
>Decided pretty quickly to keep Plaxico due to the fact that... he's
>a fairly
>good receiver, and I've historically had crappy receivers. I was
>debating
>Jones / Gonzalez, and didn't really even consider Culpepper. I
>figured
>"any" RB is fairly valuable, and Jones would be getting at least
>"some"
>carries, and I'm still not convinced Benson will be the man. But
>now, I'm
>actually wondering if I shouldn't have kept Culpepper...
>
>Anyway, whadda you stink? Should kept Culpepper, perhaps?

My response:
Thanks. I actually waffled quite a bit on mine, but feel I made the right decision. In the end, you have to keep your RBs if they're starters, Palmer is still a slight question mark recovering from his injury, and the odds of getting a good QB at #15 are much higher than getting a good wide receiver. There's maybe 5 guys out there who are really top receivers, and the drop off from them to the next guys is huge. You could say the same thing about QBs to a degree, but it's not as big of a dropoff. Also, with 16 teams and everyone only having to start one QB, the advantage for anyone there will be minimal.

Your keepers really came down to choosing between Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Tony Gonzales, or Dante Culpepper. LJ is obvious, and you can make a strong case for the other four. Burress probably wouldn't have been there at pick #16, but someone similar would, like Joe Horn. I probably wouldn't have kept him for that reason. Gonzales, like you said last year, is like a good, productive, receiver, at a position where there aren't many good ones. It's like having three receivers out there, which is a nice advantage. Oddly enough, he may still be there at #16, as the league tends to draft only RBs, QBs, and WRs in the first couple of rounds. You might actually get him back, so I wouldn't feel too bad about dropping him. As far as Thomas Jones? I only see 6-9 running backs left on the board that I think would go before him. What you said is true, in our league, you almost have to keep your running backs, especially now that we have 16 teams. Another reason I think he's a good keeper is that he's going to do well is that he's coming off of a great year, and he has his teammates and coaching staff behind him. Cedric Benson is an interesting case. The Bears have a significant investment in him, and he is more talented with more upside than Thomas Jones (face it, it's true). You don't pay a guy that much money and draft him that high unless you plan on him being your starter. He doesn't work that hard though, and pisses off his coaches and teammates. That being said, I think Jones is a good guy to keep, but there will come a time when Benson takes the job. I'd try to trade him early.
So I would have kept LJ, Thomas Jones, and Culpepper. Still, no matter who you choose among that group, you'll be okay (provided you don't drop LJ).

So, who would you have kept if you were him and why?